Introduction to the programme

This module is two of three modules within this Climate Adaptation Literacy Training Programme. You are required to complete all three modules.

Climate change in the UK and why adaptation matters

Headline introduction and key definitions
Climate change and future projections
Climate hazards and their potential impacts

Zooming in: Climate impacts in the West Midlands

Climate risks facing the West Midlands
Examples of climate hazards in the West Midlands

How can we adapt to climate change?

The measures to adapt to climate change
Best practice examples of climate adaptation
Adapting your work to be climate resilient

Once you have completed all three modules, you will get your personal certificate after the assessment at the end of the modules.

Module 2 learning outcomes

By the time you have completed this module, you should have a good understanding of:

How climate risks are distributed across the West Midlands.
The impacts of climate risks on residents in the West Midlands through the lens of different policy areas.
Examples of climate hazards impacting the West Midlands.

West Midlands’ profile

There are a few factors that characterise the West Midlands’ relationship to climate risk.

Our region is landlocked

We are not vulnerable to the immediate impacts of coastal erosion and rising sea levels.

Our region is primarily urban

This means that we have a lot of hard infrastructure – such as roads and pavements, which can make it more difficult for water to drain properly after heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of surface water flooding.

The high concentration of buildings, roads and other infrastructure in our region also makes us vulnerable to the urban heat island effect, exposing us to higher temperatures than our rural surroundings.

Urban heat island effect definition

An urban heat island, or UHI, is a metropolitan area that's a lot warmer than the rural areas surrounding it. Heat is created by energy from all the people, cars, buses and trains in big cities like New York, Paris and London. This energy is absorbed by the fabric of the built environment which re-radiates the heat afterwards, amplifying the temperature compared to the rural surroundings. UHIs are created in places that have lots of activity, lots of people and an urbanised built environment.

Our region is highly populated

We are the second most populated urban area in the UK, with many of our local authority areas having a high population density. This means that many people will be exposed to climate hazards that impact the West Midlands.

Our region has high levels of deprivation

Deprivation is widespread across the region, with 28% of our residents living in the UK’s most deprived 10% of neighbourhoods. This means that a higher proportion of our residents are especially vulnerable to climate hazards and lack the resources to react to or recover from them.

West Midlands’ profile

Table one shows climate averages for the West Midlands under different Global Warming Levels (GWLs). Table two shows the projected climate indicators for the West Midlands under different GWLs and their impacts on people and transport networks.

GWL definition

Global warming levels (GWL) are a simple way to represent climate change at the global scale, which then drives local changes. Changes are relative to the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900). We have already reached +1.2°C.

Table one

Temperature Changes – West Midlands (vs. 1981–2000 baseline), Summer Maximum Temperature, Baseline: 29.3°C, 2001–2020: +1.3°C to 31.3°C, +1.5°C global warming: +2.9°C, +2°C: +3.4°C, +4°C: +7.0°C, Summer Average Temperature, Baseline: 15.7°C, 2001–2020: +1.2°C to 16.9°C, +1.5°C: +1.4°C, +2°C: +2.1°C, +4°C: +4.3°C, Winter Average Temperature, Baseline: 4.1°C, 2001–2020: +0.6°C, +1.5°C: +1.0°C, +2°C: +1.3°C, +4°C: +2.7°C, Winter Minimum Temperature, Baseline: –8.1°C, 2001–2020: +1.5°C to –6.5°C, +1.5°C / +2°C: +2.5°C, +4°C: +5.0°C, Annual Average Temperature, Baseline: 9.7°C, 2001–2020: +1.0°C to 10.5°C, +1.5°C: +1.1°C, +2°C: +1.7°C, +4°C: +3.4°C, Precipitation Changes – West Midlands (vs. 1981–2000 baseline), Summer Daily Precipitation, Baseline: 1.90 mm/day, 2001–2020: –0.2 mm to 1.67 mm/day, +1.5°C: –4%, +2°C: –13%, +4°C: –29%, Winter Daily Precipitation, Baseline: 2.02 mm/day, 2001–2020: +0.1 mm to 2.12 mm/day, +1.5°C: +4%, +2°C: +7%, +4°C: +19%

Table two

Changes in Typical Weather Days (Baseline: 1981–2000), As global temperatures rise, certain types of weather are expected to become more common. 1. Summer Days, Days over 25°C — health risks, transport issues, melting roads, Baseline: 13 days/year, 2001–2020: 23 days/year, 1.5°C warming: 26 days/year, 2°C warming: 32 days/year, 4°C warming: 59 days/year, 2. Hot Summer Days, Days over 30°C — higher health and infrastructure risks, Baseline: 1 day/year, 2001–2020: 3 days/year, 1.5°C: 4 days/year, 2°C: 5 days/year, 4°C: 17 days/year, 3. Extreme Summer Days, Days over 35°C — very high heat risk, Baseline & Recent Past: 0 days/year, 1.5°C: 0 days/year, 2°C: up to 1 day/year, 4°C: around 3 days/year, 4. Tropical Nights, Nights above 20°C — sleep and health impacts, Baseline & Recent Past: 0 nights/year, 4°C: about 2 nights/year (not expected at lower warming levels), 5. Frost Days, Days at or below 0°C — travel disruption and plant damage, Baseline: 47 days/year, 2001–2020: 37 days/year, 1.5°C: 32 days/year, 2°C: 26 days/year, 4°C: 11 days/year

Icing Days, Definition: Days where the maximum temperature stays below 0°C (freezing all day). Impacts: More severe than frost; increases risk of hazardous icy conditions. Changes: Baseline (1981–2000): ~3 days/year, Recent Past (2001–2020): ~1 day/year, Projections: 1.5°C GWL: ~1 day/year, 2°C GWL: Close to 0, 4°C GWL: 0 days/year, Growing Degree Days, Definition: A measure of accumulated warmth above 5.5°C during the growing season. Impacts: More warmth = longer and more productive growing seasons. Changes: Baseline: ~1,820 GDD/year, Recent Past: ~2,058 GDD/year, Projections: 1.5°C GWL: ~2,141 GDD/year, 2°C GWL: ~2,294 GDD/year, 4°C GWL: ~2,819 GDD/year

Section 1 | Climate hazards in the West Midlands

Where in the West Midlands is most at risk from climate hazards?

There are big differences between different parts of the West Midlands, and this is reflected in their vulnerability to climate hazards.

We know that deprivation is significantly higher in certain parts of our region. Many residents in these areas will lack the economic resources to react or recover from climate hazards, making them more vulnerable.

Inequality is central to how our region will experience climate change, often in ways we might not expect. For example, many deprived areas also have less green space and tree cover, meaning that their immediate surroundings are warmer than the regional average during heatwaves, exposing their populations to further risk.

We will learn more about that later in this module.

Where in the West Midlands is most at risk from climate hazards?

With a team of experts from the University of Birmingham, we have been able to assess where in the West Midlands is most at risk from climate hazards. We have done this by combining spatial data to give every part of the West Midlands a dedicated score.

Vulnerability is one factor that contributes to the assessment of climate risk. Vulnerability indicates a factors that make a person, location or item more likely to be negatively impacted by a threat or hazard. Exposure is one factor that contributes to the assessment of climate risk. Exposure indicates the number or quantity of people or assets in harms way. Hazards are one factor that contributes to the assessment of climate risk. Hazards are the weather-related events that occur in a location. These can include heavy rainfall, high temperatures, a lack of rainfall or extreme low temperatures and storms. Risk is the potential for something negative to happen. Climate risk is composed of three factors: vulnerability, exposure and hazards.

To map vulnerability, we have accounted for everything from household income, to households with dependant children, to residents whose first language is not English. These factors give us an indication of the challenges residents might face in reacting or recovering from climate hazards.

To map exposure, we have used population density. The more people in harm’s way – the greater the problem.

To map hazards, we have combined factors such as air pollution, green space deficit, surface temperatures and flood risk.

Combined, these factors enable us to calculate each area’s total risk score, which gives us a balanced overview of where climate impacts are most likely to occur, and how severely they are likely to be felt.

What these maps confirm is that it is often our more deprived residents who are most at risk from climate hazards. Take a moment to review the maps shown on the next slide.

Areas

Areas in yellow have the highest score and are most at risk. Is this what you expected them to show? What do you think has caused these results?

Combined climate hazard hotspots

Shows the areas with the most hazards from climate impacts.

The map details where a combination of climate hazards, including high temperatures, flood risk and poor air quality, are concentrated across the West Midlands. The map shows the highest concentrations of hazard-related risks are concentrated around built-up urban centres and near rivers. High scores are spread across the region, and the rural nature of Solihull leads to the low scores the borough receives when compared to the rest of the region.

Socio-economic vulnerability hotspots

Shows the areas most vulnerable to climate impacts.

The map details where overall socio-economic-based vulnerability is concentrated across the region. The map shows areas of economic and health deprivation to be concentrated in urban centres. Unlike the combined hazard map, these concentrations are less related to proximity to water bodies and the nature of the built environment.

Exposure hotspots

Shows population dense areas that are more exposed to climate impacts.

The map details concentrations of population density based on 2021 census data. This map shows that more people live in urbanised areas, with fewer people living in rural outskirts.

Total risk map

Shows the areas most at risk from climate impacts.

The map details concentrations of overall climate risk and vulnerability based on a combination of the hazard, vulnerability and exposure maps in the earlier tabs. The map shows that the highest concentrations are in urban centres, notably close to city and town centres. East Birmingham, the North East of Coventry, the centre of Dudley, the centre and North of Sandwell, the North West of Solihull, the West of Walsall and the centre of Wolverhampton all score high when hazard, vulnerability and exposure scores are combined.

Where in the West Midlands is most at risk from climate hazards?

As we could see from the maps earlier, climate change doesn’t affect all people and places equally. Vulnerable people may be less able to cope with hazards and are more likely to be more negatively affected by climate change.

Impacts on the community

How might climate change affect people in the West Midlands?

This is an illustration of the climate risk and vulnerability maps previously shown. It indicates where locations with a lack of green space, close proximity to a water body and in a deprived location might score higher in terms of climate risk when compared to another more affluent location that has green infrastructure and is further aware from a water body.

Vulnerabilities

Climate change doesn’t affect all people and places equally. Vulnerable people may have less ability to cope with hazards and are more likely to be more negatively affected by climate change.

Climate impacts on people include:

Respiratory diseases
Cardiovascular diseases
Poorer mental health
Vector-borne diseases
Loss of income
Overheating risk
Damage or loss of homes and possessions
Bacterial and viral infections

Section 2 | Types of climate impacts in the West Midlands

Types of climate impacts

Climate hazards can impact every part of people’s lives in the West Midlands, but for brevity, we are going to examine them through four broad categories:

Economy

The impacts from climate change will affect all parts of the world, which is likely to have knock-on impacts for the global economy.

People

The impacts on people section will review how different aspects of society may be affected, including the identification of vulnerable groups and inequalities.

Infrastructure

The infrastructure section will look at damage to physical assets from climate change, explicitly across transport, housing, health, education and water and the potential knock-on effects on businesses and the economy.

Natural Environment

The natural environment section will review how climate change will impact biodiversity, habitats, soil health and the potential knock-on effects to natural capital that society is dependent upon.

These categories are informed by two specialist reports we have commissioned to ascertain the impacts of climate change in the West Midlands. The two reports below can be accessed via the RESOURCES button.

A Summary of Climate Change Impacts in the West Midlands Combined Authority Area.
Economic Impacts Assessment Executive Summary.

There are plenty of ways in which the risks and impacts belonging to one category may overlap with or influence those belonging to another. We encourage you to reflect on this as you learn.

Inclusive growth

Inclusive growth is ‘a more deliberate and socially purposeful model of economic growth – measured not only by how fast or aggressive it is; but also, by how well it is created and shared across the whole population and place, and by the social and environmental outcomes it realises for our people.’

We are including inclusive growth here not only because it is central to all that the WMCA does, but also because it provides us with a handy structure for outlining how climate hazards might impact different types of policy areas and outcomes.

Inclusive growth

The WMCA's Inclusive Growth Framework is striving to achieve:

Affordable and safe places

Affordable and safe places is about everyone living in decent homes that they can afford, in neighbourhoods where they feel secure, and having a sense of belonging in the place that they live.

Health and wellbeing

Health and wellbeing is about people living longer, healthier and happier lives, regardless of their social circumstances, which has often placed a limit on their prospects for a healthy life.

Connected communities

Connected communities is about ensuring that people can interact with the world around them. This includes physical and digital connectivity. Physical connectivity helps people to reach places to live, work, have fun and meet up. Digital connectivity and digital inclusion help people to learn and get connected to the internet, for instance, through using a device and data. All of this helps people feel connected to one another and the world around them.

Power and participation

Power and participation is about people having a voice in influencing the things that matter to them. People who have power over their own personal circumstances can shape the places that they live and spend time in. Those who feel that they actively participate and shape the places in which they live and work, will feel a greater sense of belonging.

Inclusive economy

An inclusive economy is one in which everyone has a part to play. The economy is flourishing and sustainable, and everyone benefits from it. This contrasts with an economy where a small group of people benefit first, and where wealth is then redistributed later or trickled down.

Climate and environment

Climate and environment refers to the need for the West Midlands to work within the planet's natural resources, striving towards net zero carbon, natural environment restoration and making adaptations to better cope with the threats associated with climate change.

Equality

Equality means that people can thrive and flourish regardless of their protected characteristics and backgrounds.

Education and learning

Education and learning opportunities are important for everyone at any age, to enable them to flourish and reach their potential. From giving children and young people the best start in life, to providing opportunities for working aged and older adults to gain new skills, retrain for a new job or pursue their own interests for leisure. All types of learning are important for an inclusive society.

Impacts on people in the West Midlands: built environment

Below shows the impact on people in relation to the built environment.

Widening inequalities (e.g. those who rely on public spaces for outdoor areas) relating to a lack of access to urban green space.

Flood and storm damage to buildings leading them to become unsafe for residents to reside in.

Overheating of domestic properties causing health hazards such as heat exhaustion and thermal discomfort.

Damage to communal spaces and assets in the public realm.

Increased financial damages associated with costs from flood damage repair, particularly affecting lower income households and housing providers. Reduced affordability of high-risk properties – rising insurance prices.

Displacement of people and communities due to extreme weather events such as flooding. This causes an additional housing demand due to displacement, both domestic and international.

Case study: 2023 flash floods

Read the case study below to learn more.

July 2023 saw an average rainfall of 120.4mm across England:

This is significant to the usual average rate of rainfall for the Midlands in July, which is around 66mm across the region. The West Midlands was exposed to a particularly severe period of heavy rain and thunderstorms on 8 and 9 July. With both natural and artificial drainage systems stretched, this led to flash flooding, resulting in:

75 properties flooding.
Roads flooding across the West Midlands, especially in Birmingham, where at least nine areas of the city experienced severe surface water flooding.
The closure of parts of the M6 due to flooding.
Several businesses suffering damage and disruption, including the evacuation of the Mostly Jazz Funk and Soul festival in Moseley due to safety concerns.

Aggregating the costs of property damage, emergency services callouts and associated mental health impacts, indicates that this incident alone cost around £2.79m.

Impacts on people in the West Midlands: health

Below shows the impact on people in relation to health and wellbeing.

Risks to people with existing vulnerabilities during periods of extreme heat.

If flood water stagnates and doesn’t drain quickly, it can cause water pollution and spread disease.

Long-term health impacts, such as asthma, lung damage and cancer, and neurological damage caused by sustained exposure to poor air quality.

Mental health impacts stemming from displacement, trauma and disruption to vital services caused by flooding and extreme weather.

Reduced productivity due to climate-related ill health.

Damage to healthcare assets, such as hospitals and care homes, disrupting vital services.

Case study: 2022 heatwave

Read the case study below to learn more.

In the previous module, we took a detailed look at the impacts of the July 2022 heatwave. The West Midlands was far from immune.

For instance, in Birmingham, temperatures were 45% and 38% higher than the 1991-2021 long-term averages for July and August, respectively. We experienced:

An estimated 100 excess deaths across July and August.
Rail services to and from Birmingham’s New Street Station being suspended on both 19 July due to a power cut and 20 July due to damage to overhead cables.
46,225 customers in the West Midlands being affected by power cuts between 18 and 22 July.

Aggregating the costs associated with energy disruption, emergency service callouts, health and mortality, transport disruption and damage from wildfires, indicates that this period cost the West Midlands around £11.8m.

Knowledge check

28% of the West Midlands’ population live in the UK’s most deprived 10% of neighbourhoods.

The 2022 summer heatwaves caused roughly 100 excess deaths in the West Midlands.

Extreme heat and drought, heavy rainfall and surface water flooding are significant climate hazards for the West Midlands’ landscape.

Section 2.2 | Types of climate impacts in the West Midlands, continued

Impacts on transport infrastructure in the West Midlands

Below shows the impact of climate change on transport infrastructure.

We have already seen how disruptive flooding caused by extreme rainfall can be for our transport networks. Over time, this can also cause some of our transport assets to be damaged through erosion.

A combination of erosion and increased precipitation can cause one particularly destructive impact – bridge collapses.

Extreme temperatures can trigger transport infrastructure to fail, as demonstrated by the damage to overhead cabling that occurred in Birmingham New Street on 20 July 2022.

High temperatures can also increase the cost of maintaining our infrastructure, especially if contractors must work outside in hazardous conditions.

Both increased precipitation and increased temperatures can weaken the slopes and embankments that support our transport networks, increasing the likelihood of extremely disruptive failures due to landslides and subsidence.

Mapping impacts on infrastructure in the West Midlands

Like most climate risks, risks facing our transport assets aren't spread evenly across the West Midlands.

Transport CRVA Scores – 100m resolution (Quantiles)

This map details concentrations of climate risk and vulnerability across the West Midlands transport network. The key route networks, main roads and notably motorways across the region score high due to their criticality to the wider system and their vulnerability to surface water flooding and road melt. Infrastructure in flood plains score particularly high and routes in urban centres, with more frequent transport services, also score higher than areas with fewer services and lower population rates.

This map has been produced using a similar process to the ones we have already seen in this module, but with a specific focus on our transport assets.

To produce this map, we have consulted with a group of experts from the University of Birmingham and Transport for West Midlands to decide which transport assets are most critical to our population, and this has been reflected in the map.

Areas in yellow have the highest score and are most at risk.

Is this how you expected this map to look?

Mapping impacts on transport infrastructure

Climate change can impact transport networks at both a national and a regional scale. Each mode of transport (e.g. rail, tram, road, cycle, bus) is vulnerable in diverse ways to climate hazards.

Impacts on transport infrastructure

See how climate change might affect transport systems across the West Midlands.

This is an illustration of the transport-specific climate risk and vulnerability map previously shown. It indicates where locations with a lack of green space, close proximity to a water body, tall embankments and high criticality scores might score higher in terms of climate risk when compared to another less critical infrastructure that is protected by green space and further away from water bodies and embankments.

Vulnerabilities

Climate change can impact transport networks at both a national and a regional scale. Each mode of transport (e.g. rail, tram, road, cycle, bus) is vulnerable in diverse ways to climate hazards.

Transport-related climate impacts include:

Increased maintenance/repair costs
Injury to staff and/or passengers
Disruption and delays
Loss or reduced transport services
Operational challenges
Unsafe or unstable structures
Knock-on impacts to utilities
Impact on response times for emergency services

Impacts on energy infrastructure in the West Midlands

Below shows the impact of climate change on energy infrastructure.

Increased incidents of extreme weather make damage to overhead cables and electricity substations more likely, increasing the risk of power cuts.

Decreased precipitation can reduce the water supply for generation plants, disrupting the output of thermal power generators.

Decreased precipitation and high temperatures increase the risk of wildfires. The presence of this risk alone can disrupt our energy supply, as providers may need to pause energy generation to manage this risk.

Temperature changes may reduce the demand for heating in winter but cause surges in demand for cooling during the summer.

Impacts on telecommunications infrastructure in the West Midlands

Below shows the impact of climate change on telecommunications

Data, broadband and telecom centres are dependent on an external power supply, making them vulnerable to energy infrastructure disruption.

Decreased precipitation during summer can cause subsidence and damage buried infrastructure, such as the underground cabling our communications system relies upon.

Increased temperature can cause data, broadband and telecom centres to fail due to overheating.

Both risks can trigger further, cascading failures, such as supply chain disruption and delays in the healthcare system.

Both risks could disrupt essential communications channels, like those used by emergency response organisations who use digitalised systems to communicate.

Case study: Storm Doris

Read the case study below.

23 February 2017 saw extreme rainfall and winds of up to 60mph batter the West Midlands as Storm Doris swept across the UK.

Flooding and fallen trees led to the closure of at least eight B roads in the region as well as part of the M5.
The extreme weather also saw extensive rail disruption and several flights from Birmingham Airport cancelled.
Damage from the storm led to significant power disruption, with the National Grid reporting 664 faults across the area, culminating in a combined total of around 15 million customer hours lost.
Flying debris put many residents in danger, with the West Midlands Ambulance Service responding to 202 incidents in just one hour between 10:00-11:00 – a 43% increase from the day before.
Tragically, a 28-year-old woman was struck and killed by the lid of a water tank in Wolverhampton.
The cost inflicted by Storm Doris on the WMCA area has been estimated at over £7 million.

Knowledge check

Temperature changes may reduce the demand for heating in winter but will cause surges in demand for cooling during the summer.

A combination of erosion and increased precipitation can cause bridge collapses.

Increased temperature can cause data, broadband and telecom centres to fail due to overheating.

Section 2.3 | Types of climate impacts in the West Midlands, continued

Impacts on the natural environment in the West Midlands

Below shows the impact of climate change on the natural environment.

Increased precipitation and ground movement threaten to significantly damage our cultural heritage sites and green spaces.

More frequent flooding due to increased precipitation makes water pollution in the West Midlands more likely.

Increased temperatures, variable precipitation rates and increased humidity because of climate change are all contributing to biodiversity loss in the West Midlands.

The UK is already one of the most nature-depleted countries on Earth, with only around half of its natural biodiversity left.

Increased temperature, fluctuating climatic conditions and increased precipitation are all factors that contribute to declining soil health.

Changing climatic conditions and agricultural failures in the West Midlands and elsewhere may lead to food insecurity.

Access to green space in the West Midlands

These maps show us how access to green space is spread unevenly across the West Midlands. Areas shaded in green and yellow have the highest scores and, therefore, offer residents the least access to open or other green space.

Lack of access to open green space

Deprivation of access to open green space, like parks and public green space

The map details concentrations of where public access to open green spaces is lacking. Open green spaces are those that are not considered to be 'private' land and allow private access. The map shows that while rural areas have significant green space coverage, this is not necessarily considered 'open' for public access. For example, much of Solihull and the outskirts of Coventry and Birmingham have high proportions of green space but these are not open to the public. The lowest rates of open green space deficit are spread across the local authorities and include public parks and recreational grounds which can located in both urban and rural areas.

Lack of access to private green space

Deprivation of access to other green space, like private gardens and farming land

The map details concentrations of where private green space is lacking. This includes spaces like private gardens and farming land. Most of Solihull, the North of Birmingham, the South East of Walsall and the outskirts of Coventry score low on private green space deprivation due to the land available for agriculture and garden sizes. More densely populated urban centres, such as those in central Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell and Wolverhampton, score high in terms of the lack of private green space.

Socio-economic vulnerability

The map details where the overall socio-economic-based vulnerability is concentrated across the region. The map shows areas of economic and health deprivation to be concentrated in urban centres. Unlike the combined hazard map, these concentrations are less related to proximity to water bodies and the nature of the built environment.

Correlation graph

This graph shows a positive correlation between socio-economic vulnerability per ward and the lack of greenspace per ward. As the lack of greenspace increases from low to high, socio-economic vulnerability tends to increase from low to high as well.

The scatter plot illustrates the relationship between the lack of greenspace per ward and socio-economic vulnerability per ward. The x-axis ranges from ‘Lowest’ to ‘Highest’ lack of greenspace, while the y-axis ranges from ‘Lowest’ to ‘Highest’ socio-economic vulnerability. The data points indicate a positive correlation, suggesting that wards with less greenspace tend to have higher socio-economic vulnerability.

The impact of green space in the West Midlands

At their closest point, these two neighbourhoods in Birmingham are a mile apart. On hot days, there are stark differences between the two. Tree Equity Score UK measures how the benefits of trees are spread unevenly across socio-economic groups and how people on low incomes are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards.

The platform shows a surface temperature disparity of 6ºC between areas with high tree canopy cover (the leafy Edgbaston suburb shown in Figure A) and low tree canopy cover (Digbeth in Figure B).

Figure A

This screenshot from Tree Equity Score UK shows the tree equity scores given to a selection of areas in Birmingham. The image shows the scores given to a high scoring, more affluent LSOA (Edgbaston). The diagram shows that Edgbaston has 37% tree canopy cover, exceeding the goal of 30%. The map also shows the average air pollution, health benefits, temperature and income rates associated with the location. This demonstrates a correlation between these wider outcomes and the amount of canopy cover in a given area.

Figure B

The impact of green space in the West Midlands

Climate hazards, such as extreme heat, are challenging for all of us, but residents without access to green space are likely to experience them much more acutely.

Explore how trees shape people’s experiences across the West Midlands.

Select here. (This link will open in a new window.)

Case study: the 2022 wildfires

Read the case study below.

We have already learned about the significant damage and disruption inflicted upon the West Midlands by the 2022 heatwaves.

This period of extreme heat also saw an unprecedented number of wildfires occurring in the region, taking an additional toll on our natural environment.

Between June and September 2022, the West Midlands Fire Service responded to over 1,700 grassland, shrubland and verge fires. This is up from less than 400 during the same period in 2021.
A particularly severe wildfire in the Lickey Hills Country Park in July 2022 took 60 firefighters to contain and destroyed 12 acres of parkland. Fifteen residents were evacuated from their homes.

Impacts on the West Midlands’ economy

We have uncovered lots of ways in which climate hazards will impact life in the West Midlands. However, we have mainly been looking at them in isolation, and it can be difficult to picture what will happen when these impacts occur simultaneously and produce cascading impacts of their own.

Impacts on the West Midlands’ economy

The WMCA has published an Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the region's economy. This covers factors from international supply chain disruption, to mental health, to air quality and property flood rates.

It found that under a medium warming scenario (where we reach global average surface temperatures of about 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2081-2100):

GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP - the value of all goods and services produced in an area) growth in the West Midlands would decline by 0.75% every year by 2030 and 1.5% every year by 2050.

GVA

By 2030, Gross Value Added (GVA – the value generated by all goods and services produced in an area) in the WMCA area would be reduced by £350-£638m a year due to climate change, with these impacts rising to between £1.5bn and £2.9bn by 2050.

Cost

Climate change will cost the West Midlands around £1.5bn every year by 2050.

In the short term, the impact of climate change makes meeting the WMCA’s economic growth targets more challenging. In the medium to long term, this means the West Midlands risks becoming a less attractive region for investors, threatening to further entrench regional inequality.

The do-nothing scenario: explore the future of the West Midlands

Heavy rainfall and storms leading to…

Surface water flooding obstructs roads and pavements.
Contaminated water pools on poorly managed derelict site.
Surface water floods housing where drains struggle with heavy rainfall.
Increased emergency service demand in response to flooding.
High river levels flood roads and houses.

High and extreme temperatures leading to…

Poor ventilation and sun exposure lead high-rise flats to overheat.
Heat stress of staff lead shops to close due to poor ventilation and no air conditioning.
Tightly packed, densely populated housing, with poor energy efficiency and ventilation, experience heat stress with emergency services supporting vulnerable residents.
Communal car parking has limited public green space and natural shading for respite and shelter.

Knowledge check

The UK is already one of the most nature-depleted countries on Earth, with only around half of its natural biodiversity left.

The Tree Equity Score UK map shows that two neighbourhoods in Birmingham, around a mile apart, had an average temperature difference of roughly 6˚C.

Under the medium warming scenario, climate change will cost the West Midlands £1.5 billion every year.

Summary

You have now completed this module on Zooming in: Climate impacts in the West Midlands.

To recap, we have learned:

Inequality is central to how the West Midlands will experience climate change.
Climate hazards will impact several policy areas and inclusive growth outcomes that are important to the West Midlands.
Climate hazards are already causing extensive damage in the West Midlands.
Climate hazards will make it more challenging for the West Midlands to achieve its ambitions for economic growth.

You may now close out of the module or browse the RESOURSES below.